原视频：BREAKING: The Fed Just Froze Rates — Here’s What Happens After EVERY Midterm Since 1950! · Graham Stephan · 2026-10-28 · 16分01秒 文本来源：提取并规范化 YouTube 英文自动字幕，共450条；本笔记基于字幕文本整理，未逐句听校或核验画面。
结构化中文摘要#
作者把通胀、国债收益率、科技股集中度与中期选举放在一起，讨论市场面对的压力。他认为选举结束可能减少不确定性，但利率和企业盈利仍会决定后续表现；其个人应对思路是保留流动性、分散配置并持续投入。
- 国债收益率抬高其他资产的竞争门槛。 作者解释，美国国债利率影响房贷、个人贷款等融资成本；当国债收益率升高，投资者也会重新衡量股票和房地产的回报是否值得承担风险。他将近期压力归因于通胀及生产端成本上升，并引用9月通胀3.7%、生产者价格月增1.3%和年增6.3%等数字。01:20
- 指数上涨可能掩盖市场内部的分化。 作者强调标普500按市值加权，称苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和特斯拉七家公司占比超过35%，前十家公司贡献了年内涨幅的59%。他据此提醒，持有宽基指数也可能集中暴露于少数公司的表现。03:41
- AI投资既是增长来源，也是依赖风险。 作者引用ING的说法，称AI投资贡献了当年美国经济增长的约三分之一，并以就业和新房建设放缓作对照。他担忧市场过度依赖少数公司巨额AI投入，最终回报能否兑现是关键。05:11
- “中期选举魔咒”是作者引用的历史统计。 按视频说法，自1970年以来，中期选举年股市平均回报为7.5%，其他年份为12.4%；自1950年以来，中期选举年平均最大回撤为17.5%。作者将这种差异主要解释为选举前的不确定性。07:55
- 选后上涨的历史频率很高，但作者也承认不能保证重演。 他称，自1950年以来19次中期选举后的12个月，标普500均上涨、平均约15%；若追溯到1874年，则为38次中有32次上涨，约84%。他同时提出：视频所述2026年市场已经提前上涨，部分选后行情是否已被提前反映？他的解释侧重于结果落定后不确定性消退，而非某个党派获胜。09:11 · 10:02
- 美联储按兵不动，并不意味着作者预期很快降息。 视频称美联储维持利率至12月会议，作者认为通胀仍高、政策指引变少，未来仍可能加息。他转述市场对未来六个月约50个基点加息的定价，并用油价回落与继续上涨两种情境讨论压力变化。10:59
- 估值是否合理，最终取决于盈利能否兑现。 作者称标普500的周期调整市盈率（CAPE）约41，接近互联网泡沫时期的高位；另一方面，约20倍的预期市盈率接近五年均值，且头部企业已有大量利润。他没有据此断言即将崩盘，而是承认继续上涨与盈利低于预期两种可能。13:00
- 作者的个人策略是避免被迫卖出，并保留持续投入的能力。 他倾向留有现金或国债缓冲，分散至不同市场和资产，尤其重视稳定收入；他表示不尝试精准抄底，也不假装知道市场下一步，而是“期待最好，准备最坏”。14:09 · 14:56
来源与文本说明#
- 上述内容是视频作者的观点与数据引用，未独立核实其经济数据、历史收益口径、市场定价或预测；应结合视频发布日期理解“今年”“下周”等表述。
- 06:13–07:51为SoFi赞助推广，涉及加密货币及最高1,000美元奖励等活动。英文原文与中文译文完整保留；银行资质、产品保障和活动条件均为广告中的说法，未另行核实。
- 自动字幕在07:56写作“Kevin O’Leary”，其他相关位置写作“Kevin Warsh”；原文保留这种差异，译文按各处字幕处理。11:14–11:44的相近内容重复也予以保留。
- 03:58、04:43、15:13、15:50等处有句子中断或残缺。未逐句听校，不能判定是剪辑、消音还是字幕缺失；不猜补数字或句子。中文字幕按原有450条字幕逐条翻译，保留时间轴；时间戳为字幕级估计。
视频原文全文（英语）#
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What’s up you guys? So, you better get ready because everything’s about to go to sh-All right, I know that joke’s getting old, but this time something is seriously wrong with our economy. And what worries me even more is that most investors are completely clueless with what’s about to happen. After all, inflation is rising, nearly 40%of the S&P 500 is already in a bear market, and with cracks beginning to form throughout the United States, we could be on the verge of something that almost nobody is prepared for. That’s why we really got to break down exactly what the Federal Reserve just said as of a few hours ago, the impact that this is about to have on stocks, midterm elections, and the entire economy. And then most importantly, what you could do about this starting today. Because the real danger isn’t what everyone’s worried about. Instead, it’s what everybody is ignoring, which we’ll cover as soon as you hit the like button and subscribe if you haven’t done that already. All right, I know you’re sick and tired of me begging for likes. I don’t like it either, pun intended, but it does help the channel tremendously. And as a thank you for doing that, I will give a random comment $100 if you leave a comment in the next 12 hours. How about that? So, hopefully that makes up for it. Thank you so much, and also big thank you to SoFi for sponsoring this video, but more on that later. All right, so in terms of what Kevin Warsh just said, the risks to the economy that almost no one’s talking about, and then most importantly, what you could do today to get ahead of it all, we got to talk about Treasury bonds. Look, really quick, I’ve said this before, but for those unaware, Treasury bonds basically make up the foundation of our entire financial system because those interest rates determine how much it costs to borrow money for everything. We’re talking mortgage rates, personal loans, credit lines. Basically, think of this like an IOU. And in this case, the borrower is the United States government paying you back basically guaranteed interest. So, what’s the problem? Well, in the last few weeks, those interest rates have skyrocketed with the 20-year Treasury reaching its highest level in decades, all thanks to the never-ending boogeyman of inflation. When it comes to this, unfortunately, according to all of the data out there, the prices of just about everything is getting out of control. In fact, inflation just rose to 3.7%in September, back to a level that we haven’t really seen since 2023. On top of that, this could get even worse because there’s another inflation report that gives us a glimpse into what’s coming next. And that’s what’s known as the producer price index. Basically, this measures what businesses pay for goods and services before they potentially pass those costs on to you.
And in terms of those numbers, it’s honestly, it’s pretty bad. Like in September alone, wholesale prices surged 1.3%more than double what economists expected. Plus, over the last year, those prices are up a whopping 6.3%, the highest annual increase in almost 4 years. Or I guess to sum all of this up, these factors caused interest rates to surge to unprecedented levels over these last 3 to 4 weeks. And that raised a very interesting question to investors because if you could get paid more than 5 and 1/2%risk-free every year for 30 years backed by the US government just for owning a Treasury bond, why own stocks? Why buy real estate? Why take the risk for any investment when you could get a guaranteed return buying a US bond instead? And yeah, you get where I’m going with this. Over the last few days, we’ve seen a rather dramatic sell-off in the markets. And when investors sell their stocks because they’re afraid of how much these companies are spending and potentially losing on AI build-outs, they often park their cash in some of the safest places that they could find, which of course, you guessed it, is these Treasury bonds backed by the US government. And that is what’s leading to a market sell-off.
Look, when it comes to the stock market, once you zoom out and look at the year-to-date returns, objectively, stock prices look like they’ve performed incredibly well. However, when you look beneath the surface and just exclude the top seven stocks holding up the rest of the market, as it turns out, everything else is completely No joke, according to a Reuters analysis, more than four to 10 stocks in the S&P 500 is down for the year. How? Well, remember that the S&P 500 isn’t 500 equal slices. Instead, it’s weighted by size, and that means the top seven companies we’re talking about Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla make up more than 35%of the entire index, which is more concentration than almost any other sector ever in history besides the railroad bubble in the 1800s. Or basically, think about it this way. When you invest $1,000 into an S&P 500 index fund, $400 of that goes into just 10 companies, and then the remaining $600 is split amongst the remaining This means when the top seven makes a move, your entire portfolio makes a move right alongside with them. And funny enough, those top 10 stocks have been responsible for 59%of all gains this
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year. This is why we have a K-shaped economy within the stock market that is completely split in two. Plus, this bifurcated market isn’t just happening with stocks. It’s literally throughout everything. Like ING says that AI investment alone accounts for a third of all US economic growth this year. Meanwhile, the rest of the economy is barely moving. Like employers added only 29,000 jobs in September. July was revised down to a loss, and new construction for homes fell 5.2%with one economist warning that the housing market is headed for a deep freeze. This means both our economy and our stock market is entirely dependent on a few companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI. And look, don’t get me wrong. If it goes well, we’re all going to make a ton of money.
But if it doesn’t, and investors start thinking, “Wait a second. How long is this going to take to start to pay off, and what if it doesn’t?” That’s where we run into problems. That’s why in terms of what happens next, how midterms could wind up flipping everything, and then what Kevin Warsh just warned us about when it comes to interest rates, here’s what you came for. Because I have a feeling the real danger is probably not what you’re expecting. Although before we go into that, I just want to say that while everyone’s focused on the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and what happens next with our economy, there is another major shift happening right now in our markets. And it all has to do with cryptocurrency. When it comes to this, without exaggeration, there are so many new potential opportunities on horizon, but getting started can often feel overwhelming and complicated. And with so many platforms out there, it could be hard to know where to even begin. But that’s where our sponsor, SoFi, is able to help. In fact, from now until December 2nd, you’ll be able to earn up to a thousand dollars in your choice of crypto. But more details on that very shortly. For those unaware, SoFi is the first nationally chartered bank where you could buy, sell, and hold cryptocurrency all from one simple app.
This means instead of throwing your money in a random spot and hoping for the best, SoFi gives you a federally regulated platform with all the safeguards of a bank. They even give you in-app guidance to help you learn as you go, so you could better understand what you’re doing before making any decisions. Not to mention, I love how they allow you to buy and sell cryptocurrency from within the same SoFi app as the rest of your finances. This means you’re able to manage your cryptocurrency right alongside with your SoFi checking, savings, and investments without jumping between platforms. Of course, crypto is inherently risky, and you got to make sure it makes sense for your financial situation before investing. But if you’re ready to explore crypto with SoFi, a nationally chartered bank, just head to sofi.com/graham or click the link down below in the description to start your crypto journey with SoFi today. Plus, like I said, new customers will be able to earn up to $1,000 in crypto in your choice of Bitcoin, Solana, or Ethereum.
All the information is down below in the description. Thank you so much, and now let’s get back to the video. All right, so before we talk about what Kevin O’Leary just said, the impact that this is about to have throughout our entire economy, and then most importantly what you could do about it, there is one more catalyst that no one’s talking about that is about to happen next week. And that’s what’s known as the midterm curse. So, for those who aren’t aware, historically, midterm election years are the weakest for the markets during any presidential cycle.
In fact, since 1970, the stock market has averaged a 7.5%during midterm years compared to 12.4%in every other year. And since 1950, the average drop from peak to bottom during a midterm year has been 17.5%the deepest of any year in the cycle. In terms of why, well, the market hates uncertainty. So, rather than take risks, investors are more likely to take their capital out of the markets, keep it on the sidelines until they could see what’s probably going to happen, and then they could plan accordingly. Like right now, the election forecasts are pointing to a potential Democratic sweep, which of course could be a huge change up compared to what we currently have. However, even though the election year itself is usually pretty weak, the good news is that after the election results are in, usually the markets tend to rally. And in terms of how much money you could make, since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single midterm election 19 out of 19 times with an average gain of about 15%.
In fact, the best was 33%in 1954, and the worst was still up 1.1%after 1986, which fun little tidbit there, that was even after the 1987 Black Monday crash. Although in terms of this election year though, here’s where 2026 gets very interesting. Surprisingly, this year has broken nearly every single historical trend ever in history. Like instead of getting the typical 17 and 1/2%decline, the biggest drop is so far been just 9% and the market’s already up 10%heading into the election, which raises a very interesting question. Did we already get
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the post-election rally early before the midterm elections even happened? Well, to answer that, we got to go all the way back to 1874 because believe it or not, the stock market has gone up following 32 out of 38 midterm elections or roughly 84%of the time. Now of course, those are pretty good historical odds that yes, we’ll continue to go higher. Of course, it’s not a guarantee. But what I did find the most interesting is that in terms of midterm elections, it has no consideration whatsoever in terms of market gains, who gets seats, who loses seats, who wins, who loses, it does not matter whatsoever. Instead, the only thing that matters is that the results are in and investors can plan from that point forward. So even though midterm elections are soon coming to an end, which should in theory unlock some pretty cool profits, there is another hold up to the economy and this is the entire reason I am posting this video today. And that of course leads us to the Federal Reserve. Like I mentioned earlier, as of a few hours ago, the Federal Reserve decided to pause any interest rate hikes and keep everything the same until their meeting in December. At which point, let’s be real, anything can happen. After all, in their words, inflation is still high. They’ve already raised interest rates and there’s a lot more work that they need to do, which points to probably higher rates in the future. But unfortunately, the Fed chair Kevin Warsh refuses to give us any guidance on what’s coming next. After all, in their words, inflation is high, they’ve already raised rates, and there’s a lot more work to do. So, that points to most likely higher interest rates in the future. But, unfortunately, the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, refuses to tell us what’s coming next. Like earlier in the month, he said that I don’t prejudge meetings, and that when it comes to giving the markets a heads-up, he said that we’re not in that business anymore, which is basically another way of saying that all of us are on our own. Like previously, under Jerome Powell, the market would get a play-by-play. He would give indications of what they were likely to do. He would sprinkle in little hints. He would talk to journalists, and really signal his intentions going forward so that the market had time to adjust. But, this time we get absolutely nothing. That’s why as of now, the market’s pricing in a very high likelihood of another rate hike occurring, unfortunately, in December, with about 50 basis points of hikes baked in for the next 6 months.
So, if you’re waiting around for a lower mortgage rates, or maybe better personal loan rates, all I got to say is uh good luck. Anyway, best case here is that oil cools off, we reach a temporary agreement with Iran, enough to smooth things over temporarily, and then we get just one rate hike, and that’s it. But, worst case is that oil keeps going higher, inflation gets worse, and the Fed raises interest rates during a time when we’re adding fewer jobs than we have in years. So, in terms of my thoughts, what most people are missing, and then most importantly, what you could do about it, here’s what you came for. Overall, I’m going to be honest with you. I’m a little more cautious about stock market valuations today than I had been in the past. Not because I think there’s going to be a crash coming soon, but just because when I look at valuations, it gets me a little cautious, a little nervous. Like look at the S&P 500’s Cape ratio. This compares prices to the last 10 years of earnings, and it’s now sitting around 41. For reference, the only time it’s been higher than this is the peak of the dot-com bubble at 44. Now, to be fair, prices could just as easily keep going higher, and the bull case is actually pretty good, too. Like, when you look at the S&P 500’s expected earnings, the S&P 500 is trading at roughly 20 times profits, which is actually pretty close to its 5-year average. And unlike the previous bubbles, these companies are making a boatload of money. There is so much money out there that it’s pretty surprising, and that also makes me think that, hey, we could have a long ways to go. That’s why the question today isn’t whether or not stocks are overvalued, it’s whether or not their earnings could justify the prices today, or if earnings have to come down eventually to reflect reality. Or really, I guess from my perspective, this is why I just like having a bit of a buffer, so that if something happens, I have some cash or some treasuries to fall back on to continue buying the dip. Again, not because I think there’s going to be a crash or something, and I’m like, “Ooh, I’m just going to go and buy the bottom.” And listen, I I don’t try to time the market, but I like to make sure I’m never going to be a force seller, and that if something falls, I have more dry powder just to keep buying in. On top of that, I also think it’s really important to be diversified. Make sure that you don’t have all of your money in like just the S&P 500 or just tech stocks. Instead, maybe look into international stocks, some bonds, some treasuries, a little cash, maybe a tiny bit of cryptocurrency, maybe gold.
Doesn’t matter. It’s really important that if one thing falls, you have something else to fall back on. And then finally, just make sure you have a steady income, because with hiring slowing down this much, your job is probably going to matter a lot more than
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whatever the market does. So, do whatever you can to keep your job, keep a consistent income, and then again, that way you can keep buying in even if the market drops, even if the market goes You’re just going to be able to keep buying in. Really, at the end of the day, I just believe that we should expect the best, but also prepare for the worst, because I’m not going to pretend this market is cheap, but I’m also not going to pretend like I know what’s going to happen either. And my entire strategy from the very beginning is just keep buying no matter what, and hitting the like button and subscribing if you haven’t done that already. So, with that said, thank you so much for watching. And also, if you want bonus videos from me every single week, as well as early access to content that I don’t post publicly, feel free to join as a channel member. You’ll be able to get extra videos from me that sometimes are just too niche to post on YouTube or on this channel. So, I really hope you enjoy these extra These are topics that I just I really enjoy talking about, but I know they wouldn’t do well for a big audience. So, hope you enjoy that. Feel free to join that. Thank you so much, and until next time.
中文全文译文#
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各位，最近怎么样？你们最好先做好准备，因为一切马上就要变得一团糟——好了，我知道这个笑话已经有点老套了，但这一次，我们的经济确实出了严重的问题。而更让我担心的是，大多数投资者根本不知道接下来会发生什么。毕竟，通胀正在上升，标普500指数中将近40%的成分股已经处于熊市，而且随着裂痕开始在美国各地显现，我们可能正处在某种局面的边缘，而几乎没人为此做好准备。所以，我们确实需要仔细拆解美联储就在几个小时前说了什么，这接下来会对股市、中期选举以及整个经济产生什么影响。还有最重要的一点：你从今天开始可以做些什么。因为真正的危险，并不是所有人都在担心的事情，而是大家都在忽视的事情。等你点个赞，如果还没订阅的话再订阅一下，我们马上就讲。好，我知道，你们已经受够了我一直求点赞。我自己也不喜欢这样——这个双关是故意的——但这确实对频道帮助很大。为了感谢大家，我会随机抽一位留言的人送出100美元，条件是你在接下来的12小时内留言。怎么样？所以，希望这能弥补一下。非常感谢大家，也特别感谢SoFi赞助本期视频，不过更多细节稍后再说。好了，要谈凯文·沃什刚刚说了什么、那些几乎没人讨论的经济风险，以及最重要的，你今天能做些什么来提前应对这一切，我们就必须谈谈美国国债。
先快速说一下，我以前讲过这个，不过还是给不了解的人介绍一下，美国国债基本上构成了我们整个金融体系的基础，因为这些利率决定了借钱办各种事情的成本。比如房贷利率、个人贷款、信贷额度。基本上，你可以把它当成一张借条。而在这里，借款方是美国政府，它向你支付基本上有保障的利息。那么，问题出在哪里？过去几周，这些利率飙升，20年期美国国债收益率达到了数十年来的最高水平，这一切都拜那个挥之不去的噩梦——通胀——所赐。说到这件事，很遗憾，根据目前所有的数据，几乎所有东西的价格都在失控。事实上，通胀率在9月刚刚升至3.7%，回到了一个我们从2023年以来就没怎么见过的水平。除此之外，情况还可能变得更糟，因为还有另一份通胀报告，能让我们窥见接下来会发生什么。那就是所谓的生产者价格指数。基本上，它衡量的是企业为商品和服务支付的价格，之后企业可能会把这些成本转嫁给你。而这些数字，说实话，确实相当糟糕。比如，仅9月一个月，批发价格就猛涨了1.3%，超过经济学家预期的两倍。而且，过去一年，这些价格已经大涨6.3%，是近4年来最高的年度涨幅。或者说，把这些事情概括一下，这些因素导致利率在最近3到4周里飙升至前所未有的水平。而这给投资者提出了一个很有意思的问题：如果你只要持有美国国债，就能连续30年每年获得超过5.5%的无风险收益，还有美国政府背书，为什么还要持有股票？为什么要买房地产？为什么要为任何投资承担风险，而你明明可以买美国国债，获得有保障的回报？对，你知道我想说什么了。过去这几天，我们看到市场出现了相当剧烈的抛售。而当投资者卖出股票，是因为他们担心这些公司在人工智能基础设施建设上花了多少钱，以及可能亏掉多少钱时，他们往往会把现金存放在自己能找到的最安全的一些地方。当然，你猜对了，就是这些由美国政府背书的国债。而这就是导致市场抛售的原因。
说到股票市场，如果把视角拉远，看看今年以来的回报，客观地说，股价看起来表现非常好。不过，如果你看得更深入一些，把支撑其余市场的七大股票剔除掉，就会发现，其他股票的情况简直完全……不是开玩笑，根据路透社的一项分析，超过四成的标普500指数成分股今年以来都在下跌。怎么会这样？要记住，标普500指数并不是平均分成500份。相反，它是按规模加权的，这意味着，排名前七的公司，也就是苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和特斯拉，占了整个指数超过35%的权重。这种集中程度超过历史上几乎任何其他行业，唯一的例外是19世纪的铁路泡沫。或者，你可以这样理解。当你把1000美元投进标普500指数基金时，其中400美元只流向10家公司，而剩下的600美元则分散到其余的……这意味着，当七大公司出现波动时，你的整个投资组合也会随之一起波动。有意思的是，这十大股票贡献了今年全部涨幅的59%。
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因此，我们的股市呈现出K形经济的格局，完全分成了两部分。而且，这种两极分化的市场，并不只出现在股票上。它实际上贯穿了方方面面。比如，荷兰国际集团表示，仅人工智能投资就贡献了今年美国经济增长的三分之一。与此同时，经济的其他部分几乎没有增长。例如，雇主在9月只新增了2.9万个就业岗位。7月的数据被下修为净减少，而且新屋开工量下降了5.2%，有一位经济学家警告，住房市场正走向深度冰封。这意味着，我们的经济和股市都完全依赖于少数几家公司在人工智能上投入数千亿美元。听着，别误解我的意思。如果一切顺利，我们都将赚很多钱。但如果不顺利，投资者开始想：“等一下，这到底需要多久才能开始产生回报，如果最终没有回报呢？”这时我们就会遇到麻烦。因此，关于接下来会发生什么、中期选举如何可能最终扭转一切，以及凯文·沃什刚刚就利率发出了什么警告，下面就是你想了解的内容。因为我觉得，真正的危险可能并不是你预想的那样。不过，在进入这个话题之前，我想先说，在所有人都关注美联储、利率，以及我们的经济接下来会怎样的时候，我们的市场眼下还在发生另一场重大变化。而这一切都与加密货币有关。说到这件事，毫不夸张地说，前方有很多潜在的新机会，但要迈出第一步，往往让人觉得不知所措、很复杂。而且，面对这么多平台，甚至连从哪里入手都很难判断。不过，我们的赞助商SoFi就能帮上忙。事实上，从现在起直到12月2日，你都有机会获得最高1000美元、以你选择的加密货币发放的奖励。更多详情稍后马上告诉你。对不熟悉它的朋友来说，SoFi是第一家持有全国性银行牌照、让你可以在一个简单的应用里买入、卖出和持有加密货币的银行。
这意味着，与其把你的钱随便放到一个地方，然后祈求好运，SoFi提供的是一个受联邦监管的平台，具备银行的各项保障。他们甚至提供应用内指引，帮助你边操作边学习，让你在做出任何决定之前，更好地了解自己在做什么。另外，我很喜欢的一点是，他们让你可以在管理其他财务的同一个SoFi应用里，买入和卖出加密货币。这意味着，你可以把加密货币与你的SoFi支票账户、储蓄和投资放在一起管理，无须来回切换平台。当然，加密货币本身就有风险，你必须在投资之前，确定它是否适合自己的财务状况，再做决定。但如果你已经准备好通过SoFi这家持有全国性银行牌照的银行探索加密货币，只需访问sofi.com/graham，或者点击下方简介中的链接，今天就开始你与SoFi一起的加密货币之旅。另外，正如我所说，新客户有机会获得最高1000美元的加密货币奖励，可以选择比特币、Solana或以太坊。所有信息都在下方简介里。非常感谢，现在让我们回到视频。好，那么，在我们讨论凯文·奥利里刚刚说了什么、这即将对我们的整个经济产生什么影响，以及最重要的、你能采取什么行动之前，还有一个没人讨论的催化因素，即将于下周发生。这就是所谓的“中期选举魔咒”。对于不了解的朋友来说，从历史上看，中期选举年是整个总统任期周期中，市场表现最弱的年份。
事实上，自1970年以来，股市在中期选举年的平均回报率为7.5%，而其他年份为12.4%。而自1950年以来，中期选举年从最高点到最低点的平均跌幅达到17.5%，是整个周期中跌幅最深的年份。至于原因，市场讨厌不确定性。所以，与其冒险，投资者更倾向于把资金从市场中撤出，暂时观望，直到他们能够看清可能会发生什么，再据此做出安排。比如现在，选举预测指向民主党可能全面获胜，而这当然可能意味着相较于我们目前的局面，出现重大变化。不过，即使选举年本身通常表现比较疲弱，好消息是，选举结果公布之后，市场通常倾向于上涨。而说到你可能赚多少钱，自1950年以来，标普500指数在每一次中期选举结束12个月后都更高，19次中19次无一例外，平均涨幅约为15%。事实上，最好的一次是1954年，上涨33%，最差的一次是在1986年选举后，仍上涨1.1%。这里有个有趣的小知识：这个结果甚至包含了1987年的“黑色星期一”股灾。不过，说到这一次选举年，2026年的情况就非常有意思了。令人惊讶的是，今年几乎打破了有史以来的每一种历史规律。例如，市场没有出现通常那种17.5%的下跌，到目前为止，最大跌幅只有9%，而且在进入选举前，市场已经上涨了10%，这就引出了一个非常有意思的问题：难道我们已经
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提前迎来了选后的上涨行情，甚至在中期选举举行之前就出现了呢？嗯，要回答这个问题，我们得一路追溯到 1874 年，因为信不信由你，股市在中期选举之后，38次中有32次出现上涨，也就是大约 84% 的时候。当然，从历史上看，这样的概率相当不错，意味着，是的，我们还会继续上涨。当然，这并不是保证。不过，我觉得最有意思的是，就中期选举而言，对于市场涨幅来说，谁赢得席位、谁失去席位、谁胜出、谁落败，这些都完全不重要。相反，唯一重要的就是结果已经揭晓，投资者可以据此规划接下来的行动。所以，尽管中期选举很快就要结束了，理论上这应该能带来一些相当不错的利润，但经济还面临另一个阻碍，而这正是我今天发布这段视频的全部原因。这当然就让我们谈到美联储。就像我前面提到的，就在几个小时前，美联储决定暂停加息，并且让各项安排保持不变，直到他们在12 月开会。到了那个时候，说实话，什么都有可能发生。毕竟，用他们的话说，通胀依然很高。他们已经提高了利率，而且还有很多工作需要去做，这意味着未来的利率可能会更高。但遗憾的是，美联储主席凯文·沃什不愿意给我们任何有关接下来会发生什么的指引。毕竟，用他们的话说，通胀很高，他们已经加过息，还有很多工作要做。所以，这意味着未来很可能会有更高的利率。但遗憾的是，美联储主席凯文·沃什不愿告诉我们接下来会怎样。比如在本月早些时候，他说：“我不会预先判断会议结果。”至于提前给市场提示，他说，“我们现在已经不做这种事了。”
这基本上就是换一种方式说，大家都得靠自己。比如，此前在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任内，市场会得到逐步的解说。他会透露他们可能采取什么行动。他会穿插一些小小的暗示。他会与记者交谈，并且明确传达自己今后的意图，让市场有时间调整。但这一次，我们什么提示都没有得到。这也就是为什么目前市场已经计入了很高的再次加息概率，而且遗憾的是，时间就在12 月；未来六个月大约 50 个基点的加息也已计入市场定价。所以，如果你还在等更低的房贷利率，或者更优惠的个人贷款利率，我只能说，呃，祝你好运。总之，最好的情况是油价降温，我们与伊朗达成临时协议，足以暂时缓和局面，然后我们只加一次息，就这样结束。但，最坏的情况是油价继续攀升，通胀恶化，而美联储在新增就业人数比多年来都要少的时候提高利率。所以，至于我的看法、大多数人忽略了什么，以及最重要的，你能对此做些什么，这就是你来这里想听的内容。总体来说，我坦白告诉你。对于如今股市的估值，我比过去更谨慎一些。这并不是因为我认为很快就会出现崩盘，只是因为当我看到这些估值时，会有点谨慎，有点紧张。比如，看看标普500 指数的 CAPE（周期调整市盈率）。它把股价与过去十年的盈利相比，现在大约在 41。作为参照，唯一比现在更高的时候，是互联网泡沫顶峰时的 44。不过，公平地说，价格同样完全可能继续上涨，而且看多的理由其实也很充分。比如，看看标普500 指数的预期盈利，标普500 指数目前的市盈率大约是20 倍，这实际上非常接近过去五年的平均水平。而且与之前的泡沫不同，这些公司正在赚大把的钱。外面有这么多钱，真的相当惊人，这也让我觉得，嘿，行情可能还有很长的路可走。所以，今天的问题并不是股票是否估值过高，而是这些公司的盈利能否支撑今天的价格，还是盈利最终必须下调，以反映现实。或者说，从我自己的角度来看，这就是为什么我喜欢留出一点缓冲，这样如果发生什么事，我还有一些现金或者美国国债可以依靠，从而继续逢低买入。再说一次，这并不是因为我认为会出现崩盘之类的情况，然后想着：“噢，我就要去抄底了。”听着，我，我不会试图给市场择时，但我喜欢确保自己永远不会被迫卖出，而且如果有什么资产下跌，我还有更多弹药可以继续买入。在此之外，我也认为，分散投资真的很重要。要确保你没有把所有的钱都投入比如单一的标普500 指数，或者单一的科技股票。相反，也许可以看看国际股票、一些债券、一些美国国债、一点现金，也许再加极少量的加密货币，也许还有黄金。
具体是什么并不重要。真正重要的是，如果其中一种资产下跌，你还有其他东西可以依靠。然后，最后，要确保你有一份稳定的收入，因为招聘放缓了这么多，你的工作可能会比
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市场如何表现重要得多。所以，尽你所能保住工作，保持持续稳定的收入。这样一来，你就能继续买入，即使市场下跌，即使市场走……你还是能够继续买入。说真的，归根结底，我就是相信，我们应该抱最好的期望，同时也做最坏的准备，因为我不会假装这个市场很便宜，但我也不会假装自己知道未来会发生什么。而我从一开始的整个策略就是无论如何都持续买入，以及点一下赞、订阅频道，如果你还没有这么做的话。那么，说到这里，非常感谢你收看。另外，如果你想每周都看到我的额外视频，并且提前观看我没有公开发布的内容，欢迎加入频道会员。你将能够看到我的额外视频，有时候这些内容太小众，不适合放到 YouTube，或者放在这个频道上。所以，我真的希望你喜欢这些额外的……这些话题我就是，我真的很喜欢聊，但是我知道它们对大众受众的表现不会太好。所以，希望你喜欢。欢迎加入。非常感谢，我们下次再见。