https://blog.alansun.host/series/%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%8E%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F/Recent content in 宏观周期与美股风险观察 on 没用知识库Hugo -- gohugo.iozh-cnalansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)© 2026 羊羊羊Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261105_%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E5%8D%81%E4%B8%AA%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8Esoxx%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E6%8E%A8%E6%BC%94/Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261105_%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E5%8D%81%E4%B8%AA%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8Esoxx%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E6%8E%A8%E6%BC%94/Andy lee 视频笔记：梳理当前美股市场的十个核心结论，涵盖 Marvell 收购 LITE 折射的硬件毛利率见顶、科技巨头财报分化、云厂商现金流转负与 AI 卖方自证瓶颈、中金模型与三日隧道下的黄金 4105 中枢，以及参照 2025 年一季度英伟达推演费城半导体（SOXX）底部的仓位管理计划。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261028_ai%E5%B7%A8%E5%A4%B4ipo%E4%B8%8E%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9/Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261028_ai%E5%B7%A8%E5%A4%B4ipo%E4%B8%8E%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9/Bravos Research 视频笔记：结合融资优序理论剖析 Anthropic、OpenAI 与 SpaceX 为何在巨额算力亏损与银行惜贷背景下被迫冲刺上市，以及纳斯达克“快速纳入指数”规则如何让被动养老金账户暴露于风险之中。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261028_%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E7%BB%B4%E6%8C%81%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%98%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%9F%E9%80%89%E4%B8%BE%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0/Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261028_%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E7%BB%B4%E6%8C%81%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%98%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%9F%E9%80%89%E4%B8%BE%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0/Graham Stephan 视频笔记：拆解 3.7% 通胀反弹与 20 年期美债高收益率对股市估值的挤压、标普 500 七巨头高度集中的 K 型分化，以及 1950 年以来 19 次中期选举后美股 100% 上涨的历史规律与应对策略。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261028_%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%87%8D%E5%90%AF%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E/Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261028_%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%87%8D%E5%90%AF%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E/Economics Explained 视频笔记：解析房地产退潮后，中国银行体系如何将高储蓄信贷重配至光伏、电池与新能源汽车等高端制造业以稳住宏观增长，以及高度自动化工厂与房产缩水为何造成宏观账面与家庭体感的温差。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261024_%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E8%B0%83%E4%BB%93%E4%B8%8Eai%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB_bravos-research/Sat, 24 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261024_%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E8%B0%83%E4%BB%93%E4%B8%8Eai%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB_bravos-research/Bravos Research 视频笔记：从荷兰、法国、印度等国央行异动调配黄金储备切入，结合国际清算银行（BIS）“弹性货币”框架与 1920 年代电气化泡沫类比，推演全球加息周期与 AI 关联融资的潜在尾部风险。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261023_%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90etf%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E4%B8%8E%E9%BB%84%E9%87%914050%E5%85%B3%E5%8F%A3/Fri, 23 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261023_%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90etf%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E4%B8%8E%E9%BB%84%E9%87%914050%E5%85%B3%E5%8F%A3/通过动量（MTUM）、质量（QUAL）、价值（VTV）与低波动（USMV）四大因子 ETF 透视美股内部资金轮动与去杠杆压力，并结合 Vegas 均线隧道体系推演科技股试仓条件与黄金两日线 4050 关口攻防。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261020_%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%B4%A9%E7%9B%98%E6%B3%A2%E5%8F%8A%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87/Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20261020_%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%B4%A9%E7%9B%98%E6%B3%A2%E5%8F%8A%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87/Casual Finance 深度视频笔记：当美国家庭 34% 的资产集中于股市、机构现金仓位降至 3.9% 极值，一旦市场逆转，1.5 万亿美元融资盘与每日机械调仓的杠杆 ETF 将如何触发连环清算并冲击实体消费。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260625_%E7%BA%B3%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%BD%AE%E5%8A%A8%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5/Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260625_%E7%BA%B3%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E6%8A%95%E8%BD%AE%E5%8A%A8%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5/基于 2000—2026 年五个典型起点的历史回测，对比单纯定投 QQQ、裸定投 TQQQ，以及结合 CAPE 估值、最大回撤（DD）与 VIX 恐慌指数的“三信号动态仓位轮动框架”。