https://blog.alansun.host/series/ai-%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E4%B8%8E%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/Recent content in AI 算力与存储周期深度研究 on 没用知识库Hugo -- gohugo.iozh-cnalansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)© 2026 羊羊羊Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260721_%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E6%B6%A8%E4%BB%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%B4%A9%E5%A1%8C_2018%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA/Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260721_%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E6%B6%A8%E4%BB%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%B4%A9%E5%A1%8C_2018%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA/为什么现货内存价格仍在上涨，存储股却率先暴跌？复盘 1998、2000 与 2018 年历史周期，揭示存储股交易“价格上涨二阶导（加速度）”的底层定价规律与见顶信号。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260701_%E6%8E%A8%E7%90%86%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%9B%BE%E8%B0%B1_%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E7%93%B6%E9%A2%88%E4%B8%8E%E5%8D%81%E4%BA%8C%E5%AE%B6%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8/Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260701_%E6%8E%A8%E7%90%86%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%9B%BE%E8%B0%B1_%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E7%93%B6%E9%A2%88%E4%B8%8E%E5%8D%81%E4%BA%8C%E5%AE%B6%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8/围绕存储带宽、计算灵活性与部署功耗三大核心约束，横评 Groq、Cerebras、Tenstorrent、SambaNova、Etched 等 12 家 AI 推理芯片公司的四大存储架构路线与生存空间。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260701_hbm%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E7%9F%AD%E7%BC%BA%E8%AE%BA%E8%AF%81/Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260701_hbm%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E7%9F%AD%E7%BC%BA%E8%AE%BA%E8%AF%81/打破传统存储器“涨价—扩产—崩盘”的周期律假设，从智能体 Token 消耗、长上下文 KV Cache 状态驻留与模型规模三大引擎量化推演 2026—2030 年 HBM 的结构性供需缺口。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260630_%E9%95%BF%E9%91%AB%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98%E4%B8%8E%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F/Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260630_%E9%95%BF%E9%91%AB%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98%E4%B8%8E%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F/基于 SemiAnalysis 深度研究，剖析全球第四大 DRAM 厂商长鑫存储在设备管制、制程代差与良率上的真实约束，论证为何其扩产短期内不会终结由 HBM 驱动的内存超级周期。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260627_%E4%B8%89%E5%80%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E5%A4%8D%E7%9B%98_%E4%B8%83%E6%9C%88%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5/Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260627_%E4%B8%89%E5%80%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E5%A4%8D%E7%9B%98_%E4%B8%83%E6%9C%88%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5/复盘 6 月末美光财报后的半导体板块抛售，探讨季末资金再平衡、Token 降价压力（Tokenmaxxing）、内存涨价对下游利润的挤压，以及云巨头资本开支指引对算力股的决胜意义。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260625_%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E7%BB%88%E5%B1%80__%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F/Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260625_%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E7%BB%88%E5%B1%80__%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F/当 AI 演进至推理主线，存储成为最大算力瓶颈。本文从定制化属性、指数级需求与技术迭代三大条件出发，推演 HBM、DRAM 与企业级 SSD 能否摆脱传统强周期泥潭。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260622_%E8%8B%B1%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%94%E4%B8%89%E5%BC%A0%E7%89%8C%E7%82%B9%E7%87%83%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93/Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260622_%E8%8B%B1%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%94%E4%B8%89%E5%BC%A0%E7%89%8C%E7%82%B9%E7%87%83%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93/围绕陈立武“瓶颈在哪里，印钞机就在哪里”的投资哲学，深度剖析英特尔押注的 EMIB 先进封装、玻璃基板与合成金刚石散热三张王牌，以及后摩尔时代的供应链价值迁徙。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260620_%E8%8B%B1%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%94%E7%9A%84%E5%85%88%E8%BF%9B%E5%B0%81%E8%A3%85%E5%8F%8D%E6%94%BB/Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260620_%E8%8B%B1%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%94%E7%9A%84%E5%85%88%E8%BF%9B%E5%B0%81%E8%A3%85%E5%8F%8D%E6%94%BB/从英特尔延揽前 SK 海力士 CEO 李锡熙执掌先进封装切入，对比 EMIB 局部硅桥与台积电 CoWoS 整片硅中介层的成本、面积与良率优劣，解析 AI 芯片封装格局的潜在变局。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260617_ai%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E9%93%BE%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B0%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5/Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260617_ai%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E9%93%BE%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B0%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5/当“AI CapEx 普涨扩散”逻辑告一段落，算力投资进入去伪存真阶段。本文从量、价、产品结构与持续性四维出发，将产业链划分为四大象限并梳理存储、光互连与供电散热的核心卡位。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260615_%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%A9/Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260615_%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%A9/穿透晶圆厂前道设备（WFE）表观市占率，从技术代际垄断、装机存量售后复利（CSBG）、客户粘性与自由现金流质量四个维度，解析 ASML、AMAT、LRCX 与 KLAC 的估值分化逻辑。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260608_%E5%85%89%E5%AD%90%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%A0%88%E6%8B%86%E8%A7%A3/Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260608_%E5%85%89%E5%AD%90%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%A0%88%E6%8B%86%E8%A7%A3/将 AI 数据中心光互连产业拆解为衬底材料、外延设备、代工封装、测试良率、光器件模块与网络部署六层技术栈，厘清各环节的核心壁垒、兑现周期与代表标的。https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260602_%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E6%89%A9%E5%B1%95%E5%8F%96%E5%86%B3%E4%BA%8E%E8%BF%9E%E6%8E%A5/Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260602_%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E6%89%A9%E5%B1%95%E5%8F%96%E5%86%B3%E4%BA%8E%E8%BF%9E%E6%8E%A5/Marvell CEO Matt Murphy 联手黄仁勋与日月光吴田玉，深度阐述 AI 算力瓶颈如何从计算、内存迁移至高速连接，以及 1.6T 相干光、100T 交换芯片与共封装光学（CPO）如何突破机架“铜墙”极限。