<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="yes"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>估值分析 on 没用知识库</title><link>https://blog.alansun.host/tags/%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90/</link><description>Recent content in 估值分析 on 没用知识库</description><generator>Hugo -- gohugo.io</generator><language>zh-cn</language><managingEditor>alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)</managingEditor><webMaster>alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)</webMaster><copyright>© 2026 羊羊羊</copyright><lastBuildDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://blog.alansun.host/tags/%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title>内存涨价为何股价崩塌：2018 存储超级周期与互联网泡沫的顶部启示</title><link>https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260721_%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E6%B6%A8%E4%BB%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%B4%A9%E5%A1%8C_2018%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA/</link><pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><author>alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)</author><guid>https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260721_%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E6%B6%A8%E4%BB%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%B4%A9%E5%A1%8C_2018%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA/</guid><description>为什么现货内存价格仍在上涨，存储股却率先暴跌？复盘 1998、2000 与 2018 年历史周期，揭示存储股交易“价格上涨二阶导（加速度）”的底层定价规律与见顶信号。</description><media:content xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260721_%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E6%B6%A8%E4%BB%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%B4%A9%E5%A1%8C_2018%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA/featured.jpg"/></item><item><title>半导体设备四巨头估值复利：从装机存量看 ASML、应用材料、泛林与科磊</title><link>https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260615_%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%A9/</link><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><author>alansundy@gmail.com (羊羊羊)</author><guid>https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260615_%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%A9/</guid><description>穿透晶圆厂前道设备（WFE）表观市占率，从技术代际垄断、装机存量售后复利（CSBG）、客户粘性与自由现金流质量四个维度，解析 ASML、AMAT、LRCX 与 KLAC 的估值分化逻辑。</description><media:content xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blog.alansun.host/posts/20260615_%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%A9/featured.jpg"/></item></channel></rss>